State Dems face tough races
Many incumbent Democratic legislators in the Seattle suburbs emerged from the August primary in tough races, and many will have to fight hard to retain their seats.
By Nicole Tsong
Seattle Times Eastside reporter
Several Democratic state legislators in the Seattle suburbs emerged from this month’s primary election to find themselves in tough races against strong Republican challengers.
Some incumbents finished second in the Aug. 17 primary behind GOP candidates helped along by the sour economy, state budget problems and a national anti-incumbent mood.
Republicans say the primary results foreshadow GOP gains this fall in the state House and Senate. Democrats, though, say they’ll work to energize their voters and shift momentum their way for the November general election.
With only a few primary ballots still trickling in late last week, Sen. Claudia Kauffman, D-Kent, was more than 11 percentage points behind Republican Joe Fain in the 47th District. In the 41st District, state Sen. Randy Gordon, D-Bellevue, trailed Republican Steve Litzow by a few dozen votes.
In the 45th, Sen. Eric Oemig, D-Kirkland, was behind Republican Andy Hill by roughly 3 percentage points, while state Rep. Roger Goodman, D-Kirkland, was less than 1 percentage point ahead of Republican Kevin Haistings.
“I came up 900 [votes] and change behind, and that was surprising,” Oemig said. “If I look up and down the 405 corridor, I saw a pretty consistent pattern.”
Oemig was elected as part of a Democratic wave in 2006 — fueled in part by voter anger toward then-President George W. Bush — that helped Democrats take a larger majority in the state Senate.
Hill said voters are concerned about spending in Olympia, particularly the vote to suspend Initiative 960, which required a two-thirds majority in the Legislature to raise taxes. Oemig voted to suspend the initiative and also supported a state budget that raised taxes to help bridge a $2.8 billion shortfall and avoid deeper cuts.
“I think there’s a big disconnect between what the people want and what Olympia and the Legislature is doing,” Hill said. “The senator is part of the majority.”
Chris Vance, former state Republican Party chairman, said Washington’s primary system, which sends the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of political party, is a good predictor for how each party will do in the general election.
But Democrats argue they had low turnout in the primary. If they can get Democrats to vote in November, Democratic consultants say, they’ll reverse some of the primary results.
“I don’t see it as much about persuading people to vote Democratic as much as I see it persuading people to vote,” said political consultant Christian Sinderman.
Vance thinks enough legislative races are in play statewide that Republicans have a chance to win back the state House and maybe the Senate. Democrats now have a 61-37 majority in the House and a 31-18 majority in the Senate. The GOP would need to win an additional 13 House seats and seven Senate seats to take the majority in those chambers.
Vance predicts Republicans will do well this year, although they won’t be as dominant as in 1994, when the GOP captured a big majority in the House.
“It shows Washington state politics returning to normal, meaning a closely divided state between the two parties,” he said. “During the Bush years, the Democrats picked up a bunch of seats they have no business holding. They’re going to lose them this cycle.”
Democrats counter that some of these suburban races are not as close as Republicans say. Sinderman said many suburban districts have grown increasingly Democratic as they’ve become more urban and diverse. Democrats may lose some seats, he said, but he does not think they will give up the majority in either the Senate or the House.
Primary results also point to tight races in the 25th District, where state Rep. Dawn Morell, D-Puyallup, is trying to fend off Republican challenger Hans Zeiger, and in the 44th District, where state Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, faces Republican Dave Schmidt.
In Whatcom County, Rep. Kelli Linville, D-Bellingham, chairwoman of the House Ways and Means Committee, trailed her Republican challenger, Vincent Buys, in the 42nd District. In Spokane’s 6th District, Sen. Chris Marr was behind Republican Michael Baumgartner by nearly 7 percentage points.
Rep. Geoff Simpson, D-Covington, also is in a tough race with Republican Mark Hargrove in the 47th District.
Former state Democratic Party Chair Paul Berendt, who now works as a political consultant, said voters are yearning for change and that incumbents need to figure out a way to position themselves as outsiders.
“It’s going to be tough for a lot of people who’ve been in the Legislature and have a track record of working together,” he said. “It’s going to be important to run as an independent, as an outsider, someone who is not beholden to any special interests.”
Kauffman said she was disappointed with the primary vote but thought low voter turnout contributed to the results.
“I’m completely energized to move forward and take my campaign into high gear,” she said in a voice-mail message.
Haistings, the Republican challenging Rep. Goodman in the 45th District, said a lot of voters are frustrated. Some felt betrayed when the Legislature suspended Initiative 960.
“It’s really about living within our means, it’s reducing our spending and controlling the size of our state government” and creating private-sector jobs, he said.
But Goodman said his district, which stretches from Kirkland past Carnation, is split right down the middle between Democrats and Republicans. It will be a tight election, he said, but he believes he’ll prevail.
“The primary election is like a gut reaction whereas the general will be more of a measured response,” Goodman said.
Oemig said he was focused before the primary on getting his message out to a broad group of voters. He thought his and Goodman’s district, one of the most highly educated in the state, would be more immune to a perceived anti-incumbent sentiment. But now, he is homing in on his base.
“What we saw with the primary turnout is the people who support me and support Democrats generally are just not very enthusiastic right now,” Oemig said. “We need to turn that around.”
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A graduate of Colgate University and Harvard Business School, he worked for Microsoft where he was most successful in turning around troubled projects. He also led the company’s design of innovative K-12 educational software. He has served as PTSA President, a volunteer math tutor for the area’s kids, a youth soccer and lacrosse coach and as President of Lake Washington Soccer
